Market Analysis: The Franc May Continue to Strengthen amid Low Inflation


Today it became known about the level of inflation in Switzerland. Compared to the US, UK, and other countries, Switzerland can boast of a CPI of only 0.1%. The minimal increase in prices is due to an increase in fuel costs due to the rise in oil prices in the second half of the year. Thus, the country’s economy provides more arguments in favor of the protected harbor status.

On October 5, we wrote that the Swiss franc was near an important resistance, forming an AB double top. After this, the rate fell by 2.5% to form the October low, and now the chart provides a new piece of information for analysis, in particular about the 0.909 level, which acts as an important resistance.

The USD/CHF price has interacted with it before (as shown by the arrows), but note:
→ the level was able to stop the sharp increase on October 31;
→ did not allow the price to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the price only briefly stayed higher. The bulls were unable to gain a foothold above 0.909, and the rate fell to the lower border of the channel.

On November 2-3, rebounds form from the lower border of the channel, which looks like a logical development of the situation, but the progress of the rebounds has not approached 50% of the decline from the November highs, so this can hardly be considered a successful resumption of the bullish trend. But the bears seem determined to firmly seize the initiative, given the strength and confidence of the Swiss economy and the CHF's ability to be protected from inflation.

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