Morgan Stanley: Trump’s Tariff Plans Could Lower Stock Indices

As reported by CNBC, Morgan Stanley analysts have evaluated the potential impact of tariff plans proposed by Donald Trump during his presidential campaign on the U.S. economy and stock market.

Key initiatives from the president-elect include:
→ Introducing a general tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported goods.
→ Imposing additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on imports from China.

Morgan Stanley’s Chief Global Economist, Seth Carpenter, suggests these measures could:
→ Eliminate the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2025 and constrain economic growth.
→ Threaten a slowdown in U.S. economic growth by 2026.
→ Drive inflation higher.
→ Pressure industries such as automotive, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, and retail. Increased producer costs are likely to be passed on to consumers.

These scenarios imply a negative outlook for the U.S. stock market. Tariffs may reduce investment appeal and raise borrowing costs for companies, potentially dampening market performance.

How Might This Affect Indices Like the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen)?

Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 Mini) indicates:
→ A broad upward channel has formed in 2024 (depicted in blue).
→ During October, prices gravitated toward the median line, creating a narrower channel between Resistance and Support levels.
→ Around the presidential election, prices spiked to a peak on 11 November but subsequently returned to the median.

The 21,000 level has emerged as a significant resistance point. It briefly acted as support, but the price failed to hold above it. Could bears successfully break away from the median's pull?
So far, the chart shows no clear signs of bearish activity. However, should such signals arise, they would lend greater weight to Morgan Stanley’s forecasts.

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