On 19 November, we analysed the natural gas price chart, noting:
→ the formation of an upward channel (marked in blue);
→ a potential bullish attempt to break the key $3.200 level, which had acted as resistance (highlighted with arrows).

As seen on the XNG/USD chart, the price did rise above $3.200 but failed to hold. After fluctuating in the upper half of the channel, it dropped below $3.200 to the channel's lower boundary, driven by:
→ a bearish report from the Energy Information Administration, showing US gas inventories above the five-year average;
→ a report from financial firm LSEG noting increased average gas production across 48 US states.

This decline pushed natural gas prices to a 2.5-month low around the $2.935 level.

What Could Happen Next?

From a technical perspective on the XNG/USD chart:
→ support from the channel's lower boundary (reinforced by the psychological $3.000 mark) is already evident in an emerging price reversal (indicated by an arrow);
→ on the other hand, the $3.200 level may resume acting as resistance.

It’s likely that natural gas prices will fluctuate between $3.000 and $3.200, with weather forecasts playing a decisive role in shaping consumption expectations for the winter season.

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