Over the three spring months, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rose by 3.5% – not the worst result, but it might be disappointing considering that in the first two months of the year the index increased by 7.8%.

This trend suggests that:
→ the rally driven by interest in AI is slowing down;
→ stock market participants are concerned that Fed rates will remain high.

What could be the scenarios for future developments until the end of the year and beyond?

The media publish fresh forecasts on the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) price from Wall Street analysts:

→ MarketWatch: Analysts at JP Morgan believe that the growth potential is exhausted and the market may “hit a wall” preventing further growth. They maintain a forecast that the index value at the end of 2024 will be 4200 points.

→ MarketWatch: Experts at Wells Fargo think it would be too optimistic to expect stocks to reach new record highs ahead of the US elections in November; however, further growth related to the election results looks likely in 2025. They estimate the index could reach a record 5700 points by the end of next year.

→ BusinessInsider: According to Capital Economics, the index could rise if Treasury yields fall and the momentum from AI adoption remains strong. Their forecast is 6500 points by the end of 2025, followed by a sharp correction in 2026.

Technical analysis of the daily chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) today shows that:
→ the market is in an uptrend (marked by a blue channel);
→ the price has moved from the upper half to the lower half of the channel – a sign of weakening bullish strength;
→ the 5300 level acts as resistance;
→ the broad bullish candle on 31 May (marked by an arrow) closing near its highs indicates strong demand at the lower boundary of the channel, but whether it will be sufficient to overcome the 5300 level and consolidate above it will largely depend on the upcoming Fed rate decision (scheduled for 12 June).

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