The EUR/GBP rate fluctuates under the influence of political factors


On 10th June, we wrote that the EUR/GBP rate fell to a 21-month low after the European Parliament elections. Political fundamental factors continue to influence this pair.

As Reuters reports:

→ The euro is down on Monday amid unexpectedly strong results for the left-wing forces in the French elections, which has created new uncertainty regarding the country’s financial outlook.

→ The pound sterling has risen to a 3.5-week high against the US dollar, as the British currency strengthens following the Labour Party’s decisive victory in last week’s elections, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.

Therefore, it is not surprising that a bearish gap formed on the EUR/GBP chart at the start of the week – however, bulls managed to recoup the decline during the Asian session. How will events unfold from here?

According to the technical analysis of EUR/GBP today:

→ In terms of price dynamics since spring 2023, the market is in a downtrend (as indicated by the red channel);

→ In the aforementioned post from 10 June, we wrote that the 0.85-0.853 zone might provide significant resistance. Indeed, this was confirmed on the first day of July, when the price turned downwards from the 0.85 level (as indicated by the arrow).

If political developments do not alter the months-long dominance of the bears, the formation shown by the yellow lines could become an intermediate consolidation zone before the EUR/GBP price continues its downward trend.

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