USD/CHF Falls to Two-Week Low

This morning, the USD/CHF exchange rate slipped below 0.7944 for the first time since 1 October, as demand for safe-haven assets intensified — a trend also reflected in yesterday’s record gold price above $4,200.

The traditionally stable Swiss franc is strengthening amid rising global uncertainty and risk aversion:
→ In Japan, the upcoming prime ministerial election could significantly impact monetary policy, while France faces ongoing political turmoil.
→ In the United States, the government shutdown continues, and traders are closely watching developments around a potential trade deal with China, possibly to be discussed during an expected meeting between the two countries’ leaders.

Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart

As noted in our 25 September analysis, the Swiss franc has appreciated through 2025 amid elevated geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, forming a downward channel on the USD/CHF chart (shown in red).

We also highlighted:
→ the possibility of a trend reversal around the 0.7900 support area;
→ potential breakout targets (shown in blue).

Since then, the bulls have indeed made progress, driving the price up towards point A and:
→ breaking above the red channel’s upper boundary;
→ overcoming the psychological 0.8000 level.

However, that progress has not been sustained. Among the bearish signals:
→ the median line of the blue channel acted as resistance;
→ the brief move above local highs around 0.8072 resembles a bearish liquidity grab.

From the bullish perspective, USD/CHF has now retreated into a zone that could act as support:
→ the upper boundary of the red channel;
→ the lower boundary of the blue channel.

The arrow highlights signs of a bullish engulfing pattern, suggesting that buyers may be using these support zones to stage a rebound within the blue channel. The 0.8000 psychological mark could serve as the first key test of their resolve.

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