USD/JPY: Analysts Adjust Forecasts for the Strengthening of the Yen

FXOpen

Since the beginning of 2024, the USD/JPY price has been in an uptrend (as shown by the blue channel), but when the rate exceeded the psychological level of 150 yen per US dollar, market sentiment changed. This was due to expectations that the Bank of Japan would take interest rates out of negative territory — and statements from officials gave clear indications of this possibility.

Expecting a tightening of monetary policy, the yen sharply strengthened against the dollar, and a bearish A→B impulse formed on the USD/JPY chart. However, having reached the level of 147 yen per US dollar (and dropped slightly below it), the market has stabilized. Moreover, we see some recovery: today, the USD/JPY price is trading around 147.8.

From a fundamental analysis point of view, analysts believe that the strength of the US economy should not be underestimated. And if the Bank of Japan raises rates, it will not be in an aggressive manner. Bloomberg writes that Nomura Securities Co., Mizuho Bank Ltd. and Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc. have adjusted their forecasts for the yen in recent weeks. On average, they forecast the rate to be around 140 yen per US dollar at the end of this year. HSBC Holdings Plc, in turn, expects the yen to end the year at 136 against the US dollar.

From the point of view of technical analysis of USD/JPY, the current recovery may be due to the influence of support from the lower border of the ascending channel.

Thus, traders can assume that the recovery will end (for example, rising to approximately 148.6 — 50% of the A→B momentum), with the bears attempting to resume the downward trend with a new assault on the lower channel boundary. If it turns out to be successful, this will open the way for the price to reach the levels indicated in analysts' forecasts.

Information from the Bank of Japan will be key. Its interest rate decision is scheduled for Tuesday, March 19.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Stay ahead of the market!

Subscribe now to our mailing list and receive the latest market news and insights delivered directly to your inbox.

forex

Forex Trading with FXOpen

Forex Trading with FXOpen

Experience ECN technology for deep liquidity and light-speed trade execution

  • Access over 50 markets
  • Trade with spreads from 0.0 pips
  • Take advantage of commissions from $1.50/lot
Learn more

Latest articles

Shares

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Underperforms the Broader Market

Analysing Tesla (TSLA) stock chart on 12th December, we:

→ Identified an ascending channel, with the November price consolidation around $350 (marked by a thick blue line) potentially indicating the median line of the long-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue).

→ Mentioned

Commodities

XAU/USD Chart Analysis and Analytical Gold Price Forecast for 2025

With the holiday season underway, this week may be less volatile than the previous one, which was dominated by central bank decisions. This presents an opportunity to analyse the broader trends and outlook for gold prices in 2025.

The XAU/

Commodities

Market Analysis: Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Face Hurdles

Gold price started a fresh decline below $2,665. Crude oil prices are now struggling to clear the $70.00 and $70.50 resistance levels.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

  • Gold price climbed higher toward the
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.