Yesterday, following a false bullish breakout above the psychological $100 level, WTI crude prices fell sharply towards the $85 area. The primary driver of this rapid decline was comments made by the US President.

According to Donald Trump:
→ the United States has postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days;
→ productive negotiations are ongoing.

However, Iran later denied these claims, stating that no negotiations to end the conflict were taking place. Moreover, Israel continued its strikes on Iran, while Tehran launched fresh attacks on US assets in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, the US President’s remarks appear to be a form of verbal intervention aimed at pushing oil prices lower — and, as the XTI/USD chart shows, it is having an effect. Today, WTI crude is trading below last week’s lows.

Technical Analysis of XTI/USD

When analysing WTI price movements on 16 March, we highlighted:
→ strong selling pressure near the psychological $100 level;
→ a support zone that formed after the breakout from a local descending channel.

This support area significantly slowed yesterday’s decline in oil prices. At the same time, recent price action allows for the construction of a broad ascending channel, with its lower boundary acting as an important support level.

From a bearish perspective:
→ the $91.50 level, which acted as support last week, has now turned into resistance;
→ if bulls attempt to develop a rebound from the lower boundary, a key test of their strength will be the $95 level, where bears previously pushed prices below the channel median.

In the near term, a period of consolidation between the lower boundary of the channel and the $91.50 level cannot be ruled out, at least until stronger news catalysts emerge, particularly those related to developments around the Strait of Hormuz.

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