Commodities and European currencies Test Key Supports


On the eve of the Easter holidays, the main currency pairs have slightly slowed down the development of the main trends and are consolidating near key ranges, the breakdown of which could provoke a change in the vectors of medium-term movements. Thus, the US dollar/loonie currency pair is trading near 1.3600, euro/US dollar sellers are trying to push through the support at 1.0800, and the pound/US dollar pair is once again testing 1.2600.


Fluctuations in the oil market and the Fed’s indecisiveness regarding changing the vector of monetary policy contributed to the strengthening of the USD/CAD pair to recent extremes at 1.3600. If buyers of the pair manage to gain a foothold above the mentioned level, the price on the usd/cad chart may continue to rise in the direction of 1.4000-1.3800. Otherwise, another price test of 1.3400-1.3300 is possible.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, the publication of Canadian GDP data for January is expected. US GDP data for the fourth quarter will also be published and weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released.


The single European currency is trading near recent lows at 1.0800. If sellers of the pair manage to gain a foothold lower, the price may continue to decline in the direction of 1.0700-1.0600. Technical analysis of EUR/USD shows that cancellation of the downward scenario can be considered only after a confident consolidation above 1.0900.

From the fundamental analysis point of view, today at 11:55 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the publication of data on the unemployment rate in Germany for March. A little later, the consumer confidence index in Italy for the same period will be published.


Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair was trading near important support at 1.2600, but so far there has been no breakout downwards. If pound sellers break this support in the coming trading sessions, the pair may retest 1.2500. If the flat movement on the GBP/USD chart continues, we expect growth to the upper limit of the medium-term corridor at 1.2800.

Today at 10:00 GMT+3, we are waiting for UK GDP data for the fourth quarter. Tomorrow at 15:30 GMT+3, the basic price index of personal consumption expenditures in the US for February will be released. Also tomorrow at 18:30 GMT+3, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak.

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