Commodity-linked currencies have moved into a stabilisation phase after a prolonged decline. Last week, pressure on the AUD and NZD eased slightly, and the pace of the downturn slowed. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are consolidating near major support levels — their yearly lows — where the market is weighing the chances of a short-term rebound against the potential for renewed downside if incoming data disappoints. Investors are cautious ahead of tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and today’s US inflation release, both of which are likely to set the tone for further movement.

Market sentiment remains mixed. On the one hand, risk appetite is supported by reports of progress in US–China trade consultations, although persistent tariff risks continue to limit demand for high-yielding assets. On the other hand, soft US business activity figures and weak industrial data are fuelling expectations that upcoming inflation reports may confirm slowing price pressures. This makes the market particularly sensitive to today’s releases, which may include additional surprises given the impact of the recent shutdown.

AUD/USD

After failing to reach this year’s August lows, AUD/USD reversed upwards, forming a “piercing line” pattern on the daily timeframe. However, the pattern’s follow-through remains weak, with buyers unable to hold above the key 0.6470–0.6500 range. A break above 0.6500 could trigger a corrective rise towards 0.6550–0.6580. A move below last week’s low may resume the medium-term downtrend.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): US core retail sales
• Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Tomorrow at 03:30 (GMT+3): Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI)

NZD/USD

NZD/USD is trading near 0.5600, slightly above the yearly lows of 0.5490–0.5570. If sentiment deteriorates and the RBNZ cuts rates again, the pair may test and break new lows for the year. If it holds above 0.5600, a corrective rise towards 0.5690–0.5740 is possible.

Key events for NZD/USD:

• Today at 18:00 (GMT+3): US CB Consumer Confidence
• Tomorrow at 04:00 (GMT+3): Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision
• Tomorrow at 05:00 (GMT+3): RBNZ press conference

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