Dollar Adjusts After Disappointing Labour Market Data

The release of very weak data on average wages and the number of new jobs in the US contributed to the dollar's decline and sharp fluctuations in the currency and stock markets. On Friday, the NonFarm Payrolls report showed that:

• The number of new jobs stood at 114K, while the forecast was 176K;
• The average wage increase was recorded at 0.2%, whereas 0.3% was expected;
• Unemployment rose (4.3% against 4.1%).

A weak labour market coupled with slowing inflation could signal that the Federal Reserve may begin to lower the base interest rate in the coming months.

USD/CAD

At the start of this week, the USD/CAD pair tested two-year highs around 1.3950-1.3900. It has not yet managed to strengthen above this level, but if buyers can hold the price above 1.3800, the pair might attempt to resume growth towards the psychological resistance level of 1.4000. A break of the support at 1.3800-1.3780 could lead to a deeper downward correction towards 1.3740-1.3700. The following events may impact the pair's price formation:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00) Canada's trade balance;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00) US import and export volume;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00) EIA's short-term energy outlook report.

Read analytical USD/CAD price forecasts for 2024 and beyond.

EUR/USD

Buyers of the single European currency managed to test the important resistance level at 1.1000. Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair indicates the possibility of further growth, as a "bullish engulfing" pattern formed on the daily timeframe on 2nd August. If the pair consolidates above yesterday's high, the price may attempt to test the important range of 1.1140-1.1100. If euro sellers manage to break the important support at 1.0900, the pair may retest the 1.0800-1.0780 range.

Read analytical EUR/USD price forecasts for 2024 and beyond.

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