EUR/USD and GBP/USD Await a Fresh Impulse from Inflation Data

The euro and pound are holding their ground against the US dollar, although the momentum in European currencies has become more subdued following their previous gains. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of the release of the July US inflation report, which could alter expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy. Recent labour market data is also encouraging caution: a weak ADP report and a decline in the ISM employment component have added to signs of a gradual cooling in the US labour market.

Today, the main focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to forecasts, annual inflation may slow to 3.4% from 3.5%, while monthly prices are expected to rise by 0.1% after falling 0.4% a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast at 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Weaker-than-expected figures could strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing by the Fed and put additional pressure on the dollar. If inflation comes in above forecasts or proves more persistent, the US currency could receive fresh support. Final inflation figures for Germany and Italy will also be released in Europe, although their impact is likely to remain limited in the absence of significant deviations from preliminary estimates. Therefore, US inflation data is likely to be the main driver for EUR/USD and GBP/USD during today's session.

EUR/USD

In recent trading sessions, EUR/USD has been moving within a relatively narrow range of 1.1500–1.1580. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of another test of the lower boundary, as a Dark Cloud Cover pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. If sellers manage to establish a position below 1.1500, the pair could resume its downward move towards 1.1430–1.1460. Conversely, weaker-than-expected US inflation data could push the price towards 1.1600–1.1620.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German Consumer Price Index (CPI);
• today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Italian Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP);
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

GBP/USD

GBP/USD buyers managed to push the pair to a new local high around 1.3500. Technical analysis indicates the possibility of further gains towards 1.3540–1.3560 if the 1.3480–1.3500 area is established as support. Stronger-than-expected US inflation data could support the dollar and trigger another test of the 1.3400 level in GBP/USD.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK GDP;
• tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT+3): NI's monthly GDP tracker;
• tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+3): US federal budget execution report.

Overall, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are holding their ground after their previous gains, but their next direction will largely depend on today's US inflation report. Weaker CPI data could strengthen expectations of Fed easing and put additional pressure on the dollar, creating room for further gains in European currencies. If inflation comes in above forecasts, however, the US currency could receive fresh support, increasing the likelihood of EUR/USD and GBP/USD returning to their nearest support levels.

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