European Currencies Correct in Anticipation of a Pre-Holiday Rally

Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump, who has frequently discussed the possibility of new trade tariffs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD managed to find medium-term support last week. Both pairs are now attempting to recover toward recent highs.

GBP/USD

Last week, GBP/USD broke below the November low at 1.2480. However, the pair quickly rebounded above 1.2500, forming a bullish engulfing reversal pattern.

According to technical analysis, GBP/USD has the potential to rise further toward 1.2660–1.2730 if it can sustain levels above 1.2600. On the downside, a retest of 1.2470 could lead to a downward breakout, potentially driving the pair toward 1.2300–1.2400.

This week, trading GBP/USD requires consideration of the relatively empty economic calendar, with major investors staying out of the market. These factors could lead to sharp price swings and false breakouts.

Key Events Affecting GBP/USD Today:

• 15:30 (GMT+2): US Core Durable Goods Orders
• 17:00 (GMT+2): US New Home Sales
• 20:00 (GMT+2): Atlanta Fed GDPNow Indicator

EUR/USD

December has been challenging for EUR/USD buyers. Weak macroeconomic data and the ECB's rate cut have pushed the pair down to 1.0340. Late last week, the price briefly recovered above 1.0400 but dipped below this level again yesterday. Another test of 1.0330 may occur in the coming sessions. If this support level holds, EUR/USD could climb toward 1.0460–1.0520.

According to technical analysis, EUR/USD shows signs of a potential upward correction, provided the price can stabilise above 1.0450. On the daily chart, there is an inverted hammer pattern. Also, there is a possibility of a double bottom formation. A drop below 1.0330, however, would invalidate these patterns.

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