European Currencies Face a Crucial Test: What to Expect

FXOpen

The end of June and the beginning of July are packed with significant economic and political events for the pound and the euro. A few weeks ago, Emmanuel Macron dissolved the parliament and announced snap parliamentary elections. He took this step after the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen secured first place in the European Parliament elections. Many experts believe that if the far-right gains a majority in the parliament, it could lead to a serious political crisis in the EU, consequently exerting bearish pressure on EUR/USD.

EUR/USD

According to the technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair, if the price falls below 1.0660, the pair may continue its downward trend towards 1.0600-1.0400. A resumption of the upward trend is possible with a confident consolidation above 1.0740-1.0700. In the upcoming trading sessions, the following events should be noted:

  • Today at 12:00 (GMT +3:00) expected consumer inflation in the Eurozone;
  • Today at 13:00 (GMT +3:00) special EU summit of heads of state;
  • Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00) US GDP.

Read analytical EUR/USD price forecasts for 2024 and beyond.

GBP/USD

Similar political uncertainty is observed in the United Kingdom. A month ago, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that he had asked King Charles III to dissolve the parliament and scheduled general elections for 4 July. The upcoming political battle sees the GBP/USD pair near 1.2600. If sellers manage to break this level and consolidate below it, the downward trend may continue towards 1.2550-1.2460. A reversal of the bearish scenario is possible if the price moves above 1.2700. Important events for the pair's pricing today and tomorrow include:

  • Today at 12:30 (GMT +3:00) speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey;
  • Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT +3:00) business investments in the UK;
  • Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT +3:00) UK GDP for the first quarter.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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