European currencies, along with the yen and commodity currencies, came under pressure again last week. After Jerome Powell's hawkish talk at the Jackson Hole symposium, GBP/USD fell below 1.2600, EUR/USD broke support at 1.0800, and USD/JPY came close to 2023 extremes near 147. In the event of a breakout of these levels, the upward movement of the USD may increase sharply, which will lead to exponential growth. Conversely, a rebound from current levels could lead to a full-blown correction in almost all directions.
The British currency, which is sensitive to the risky mood of market participants, broke through important support at 1.2600 last week and set a new August low at 1.2540. Jerome Powell's statements about the Fed's readiness to further raise the rate, if necessary, sharply strengthened the dollar, contributing to the collapse of GBP/USD. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the current five-day trading period, buyers of the pound managed to return the pair above 1.2600 and at the moment they intend to test 1.2700. If bulls meet serious resistance near the range of 1.2600-1.2700, another downward impulse may occur, the target of which will be a test of 1.2400-1.2200. If the pair gains a foothold above 1.2700, the resumption of growth to 1.3000-1.3100 may happen.
The EUR/USD currency pair managed to get back above 1.0800 despite the break of this support last week. The pair's downward momentum is not as strong as in the case of the pound, and if the current situation does not change, euro buyers may be able to seize the initiative and test 1.0900 again. This level is very important for further pricing of the pair. A sharp rebound from this resistance could help bears break 1.0700 and move down towards 1.0600-1.0500.
From the point of view of fundamental analysis, today at 13:00 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of economic forecasts for the European Union. At 17:00 GMT+3, traders will pay attention to the data on the US CB consumer confidence for August.
Despite a sharp increase in the US dollar last week, precious metals managed to find significant support and form reversal bullish combinations on higher timeframes. So, in the XAU/USD pair, we observe a bullish reversal bar near 1,900.00. The behaviour of the price at the nearest resistance, which is located near the alligator lines on the daily timeframe, will be important for the development of a further upward correction.
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