The beginning of October turned out to be favourable for continued growth in the US dollar. From the data published yesterday, it follows that in September, the US manufacturing business activity index (PMI) rose to 49.0 against the forecast of 47.7. The ISM manufacturing employment index for the same period also turned out to be positive: 51.2 versus 48.3. Add to this the hawkish statements of the FOMC members who have spoken in recent days, and we can observe another upward impulse on the greenback.
For commodity currencies, the current week is extremely rich in important fundamentals. This morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia met, tomorrow, the RBNZ will announce its verdict on the rate, and on Friday, the US employment report will be released.
According to analysts' forecasts, the New Zealand regulator will leave the rate unchanged, which may put additional pressure on the NZD/USD pair. On the weekly timeframe, we are seeing a rebound from the important level of 0.6000. If the current situation does not change, we can expect a renewal of the March low of this year at 0.5860. We can consider cancelling the downward scenario only after a confident consolidation above 0.6050.
Last week, buyers of the British currency failed to develop a full-fledged upward correction after the rebound from 1.2100. Yesterday morning, the initiative passed to the sellers of the pair, who managed to break the support at 1.2100. At the moment, we are seeing a continuation of the downward trend in the pair. If the price goes below 1.2000, we can expect a test of the March low at 1.0800.
Today's news on the number of open vacancies in the US labour market for August will be important for the pair's pricing.
Sellers of the single European currency yesterday managed to update the current year's minimum at 1.0500. The slowdown of the European economy and the retreat of investors to the dollar as a safe-haven currency may lead to a new downward impulse for the pair in the direction of 1.0400-1.0200.
Tomorrow at 11:00 GMT+3, ECB head Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak.
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