Market Braces for Increased Volatility Ahead of New Tariffs

Amid global economic uncertainty and anticipation of new tariffs, major currency pairs continue to test key levels. In recent weeks, market participants have been exercising caution, awaiting potential changes in trade policy that could significantly impact exchange rates. The introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration could also put pressure on European currencies, adding another layer of uncertainty and volatility to the market. In the coming days, investors will focus on which tariffs will take effect from April and how this might influence the trajectory of leading currency pairs.

EUR/USD

The euro, after rebounding from 1.0950, tested key support at 1.0730 and is currently trading within a narrow range of 1.0850–1.0750. Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests a possible continuation of the downward trend, as a series of bearish reversal patterns has formed on the daily chart.

If the price consolidates above 1.0960, a test of the psychological level at 1.1000 is possible.

Key events that may impact EUR/USD in the coming days:
➝ Today at 10:00 (GMT+2): Change in unemployment figures in Spain
➝ Today at 13:00 (GMT+2): Speech by European Central Bank representative Schnabel
➝ Tomorrow at 11:00 (GMT+2): Composite PMI by S&P Global for the Eurozone
➝ Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2): ECB monetary policy meeting minutes release

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD currency pair remains within a narrow trading range of 1.2960–1.2870. A breakout of the lower boundary could lead to a test of support at 1.2770–1.2740.

If buyers manage to push the price above 1.3000, this could pave the way for a further rally towards 1.3100–1.3200.

Key events that may influence GBP/USD in the upcoming trading sessions:
➝ Today at 15:15 (GMT+2): ADP non-farm employment change in the US
➝ Tomorrow at 11:30 (GMT+2): UK Composite PMI
➝ Tomorrow at 11:30 (GMT+2): UK Services PMI

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