The US Labour Market Is Slowing Down. How Could This Impact Major Currency Pair Pricing?

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A weak employment report in the US contributed to a sharp pullback in major currency pairs, but it hasn't led to a full change in major trends yet. For instance, nonfarm payroll figures showed that:

  • The number of new jobs came in at 173K, compared to the forecast of 238K.
  • Average monthly wages decreased by 0.2% against an expected 0.3% increase.
  • Unemployment rose to 3.9% from 3.8%.

Following the slowdown in job growth, investors will eagerly await inflation data. If the figures meet or exceed expert forecasts, expectations for a rate cut by the US regulator could increase.

GBP/USD

According to technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair using the "chaos" system, we are seeing a corrective pullback after the formation of a reversal bar on April 22. Attention should be paid to price behaviour around 1.2520-1.2500. If the price rebounds from this range, it could strengthen towards 1.2640-1.2600. A drop below support at the entwined alligator lines may lead to a retest of the recent low around 1.2300.

Key events of the week include:

  • Today at 11:30 (GMT +3:00), publication of data on business activity index in the UK construction sector for April.
  • Thursday at 14:00 (GMT +3:00), Bank of England meeting and decision on the GBP base interest rate.

EUR/USD

After testing a significant resistance at 1.0800, the price corrected towards support at the alligator lines on the daily timeframe. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is above 1.0720-1.0700, and the probability of continued growth is quite high. However, if euro sellers manage to push below 1.0700, a resumption of the downtrend towards 1.0650-1.0600 may occur.

Today at 13:00 (GMT +3:00), we await the Eurogroup meeting. At 17:00 (GMT +3:00), a speech by the President of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, is scheduled.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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