Yen in Search of New Lows, Commodity Currencies at a low Start

In recent trading sessions, the dollar has been trading quite differently to leading currencies. Thus, the yen is reaching historical lows, European currencies have managed to correct, and the Australian and Canadian dollars are testing strategic supports.

USD/JPY

The absence of currency interventions from the Bank of Japan and strong macroeconomic data from the United States are pushing the USD/JPY pair to new levels, above which the price has not risen since 1990. However, in the coming trading sessions the situation may change dramatically:

• Today at 15.30 (GMT +3:00) US GDP data for the first quarter will be published
• Tomorrow at 5.30 (GMT +3:00) a meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place, at which a decision on the base interest rate will be announced.

This week, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued what is now the strongest possible warning about the possibility of intervention. "I will not deny that these events have laid the groundwork for Japan to take appropriate action (in the foreign exchange market), although I will not say what those actions might be," the official said.

According to technical analysis of USD/JPY, the pair is in a phase of exponential growth, which can be interrupted at any significant resistance. If a downward pullback begins, the price may drop to 154.70-1.53.60.

USD/CAD

The rise in commodity prices contributed to the start of a corrective pullback in the USD/CAD pair. On the daily timeframe, one can observe the development of the dark clouds combination, which was mentioned in a recent review. From the technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair it follows that the price found support at 1.3640; a repeated rebound from this level could lead to the pair returning above 1.3700. If the price consolidates below 1.3640-1.3620, a larger downward correction in the direction of 1.3480-1.3360 may begin.

News that may affect the pair's pricing:

• today: 15.30 (GMT +3:00) weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US
• tomorrow: 15.30 (GMT +3:00) publication of the basic price index of personal consumption expenditures in the USA for April

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