Brent crude oil is trading above $71 per barrel today, marking its highest level since late February. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price surged by approximately 2.6% on the last day of March.

Why Has Oil Risen?

Bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the US President’s stance on Russia and Iran. According to Trading Economics:

➝ Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 25–50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. This could put pressure on key importers such as India and China.
➝ He has also threatened Iran with further tariffs and airstrikes until the country agrees to abandon its nuclear weapons programme.

The rise in Brent crude prices appears to reflect traders’ concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply chains.

Technical Analysis of XBR/USD

In early March, oil formed a bullish Double Bottom pattern (see the lows on 5 and 11 March), followed by an upward trend within a rising channel (marked in blue).

Notably, the XBR/USD chart shows that the price:

➝ Has moved into the upper half of the channel.
➝ Broke through key resistance at around $70.25, a level that previously acted as support multiple times (as indicated by the arrows).

As a result, the median of the channel, reinforced by the $70.25 level, may now serve as support, keeping Brent crude within the blue channel. However, market direction will likely depend on the news cycle, particularly sharp statements from the White House.

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