Market Analysis: Bitcoin Sets September High


The price of the main cryptocurrency rose above the level of 26k USD. This was fueled by the news that Ark Invest and 21Shares filed applications with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot ETF on Ethereum.

Some say recent verdicts in favor of cryptocurrency firms Grayscale and Ripple Labs in lawsuits against the SEC increase the chances that ETF applications for Ethereum will be approved. We also note that applications for Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and other funds are being reviewed by the SEC, but the deadlines for these applications, originally set for early September, have been postponed to a later date.

Meanwhile, Barrons writes that the NASDAQ exchange is preparing infrastructure for cryptocurrency trading, which is causing bullish sentiment among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. But the BTC/USD chart gives reason to doubt.

Bearish arguments:
→ The price of Bitcoin did not exceed 50% of the sharp decline in late August and early September.
→ The price of Bitcoin has not reached the target, which is built after the breakout based on the height of the previous consolidation zone (on the chart it is 25,500-26,000).
→ Long upper shadows have formed on the last candles, indicating the strength of offers above the 26k level.
→ Also, intraday additional analysis (for example, using a Gann fan or volume analysis) showed that the bullish momentum was losing momentum, which led to the price not staying above 26k and returning to the previous range of 25,500-26,000.

The inability of the bulls to maintain the progress made increases the likelihood of bearish dynamics and indicates a shortage of factors that can support the rally.

It is reasonable to assume that future SEC approvals will generate strong bullish momentum. The rally could also be caused by the hype around the halving and the easing of the Fed’s policy in 2024. But so far there are no strong drivers for growth, and, according to Coindesk data, the volume of spot cryptocurrency trading in August set a minimum for more than 4.5 years. Perhaps the loss of interest in the cryptocurrency market will also benefit the bears.

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