Market Analysis: The Dollar Index Falls to a Minimum of the Year

Yesterday, important data on inflation in the United States was published: the CPI index was 3% in annual terms, this is the lowest value since the beginning of 2021. Thus, inflation is slowing down for the 12th month in a row, approaching the target of 2%.

Markets greeted the news with a surge of volatility — perhaps the quotes win back the expectations that the Fed will soften the current tightening policy (which is far from a fact). Against this background, the dollar index, calculated against a basket of other currencies, fell to a minimum of 2023 — respectively, the prices of EUR/USD and GBP/USD reached the highs of the year. Dollar-denominated stocks also rose in price (the Nasdaq 100 index updated a year's high), as did commodities (the price of oil rose to a maximum since the beginning of May, and gold rose in price by more than USD 20 in 2 hours after the news was published).

It is curious that the bitcoin rate against the dollar reacted with a weak growth, which was leveled by the subsequent bearish movement — a negative sign. Moreover, on the BTC/EUR chart, the price is near the support at 27,200, moving within a bearish channel (shown in red on the attached chart), which is becoming more and more evident.

Note that today at 15:30 GMT+3 another portion of important news will be released, US PPI data will be published, as well as unemployment data. Get ready for another burst of volatility, which could both further weaken the US dollar and allow it to take revenge for yesterday's decline.

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