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The daily chart of XAU/USD shows that the Average Directional Index (ADX) has reached its lowest level since the beginning of 2025, indicating a significant decline in gold price volatility.
Yesterday’s release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) initially triggered a sharp spike in gold prices, but the gains were short-lived, with the price quickly reverting to previous levels. This price action aligns with a broader market narrative of equilibrium—where supply and demand are in relative balance, and the market appears to be efficiently pricing in key influencing factors, including geopolitical tensions and tariff-related developments.
However, this fragile balance may soon be disrupted.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD
From a broader technical perspective, gold remains within a long-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue) in 2025. Key observations include:
→ Attempts to rebound from the lower boundary of the channel (marked with arrows) lack conviction. Bulls are not capitalising on these opportunities to reignite the uptrend, suggesting a potential exhaustion of buying interest.
→ A trendline drawn across the major highs of 2025 has proven to be a strong resistance level. All recent breakout attempts have failed at this barrier.
As a result, the XAU/USD chart is showing signs of forming a large-scale triangle pattern, with its axis centred around the $3,333 level. If bulls continue to falter in extending the multi-month rally, it could encourage bears to challenge the lower boundary of the ascending channel, increasing the risk of a downside breakout.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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