Commodity Currencies Retreat from Recent Highs
FXOpen
The first trading week of September is packed with significant macroeconomic data releases. On Friday, the US employment report is expected, tomorrow the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and the US non-manufacturing PMI and crude oil inventory data will also be published. In anticipation of this data mix, the Canadian and Australian currencies have retreated from their recent highs and are currently in a phase of corrective decline. Let's consider the potential scenarios for the upcoming trading sessions.
USD/CAD
Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates the potential for a deeper upward correction, as a "bullish engulfing" pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. If the 1.3500 level holds as support, the pair could continue to rise towards 1.3620-1.3580. A drop below 1.3490-1.3470 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Today, investors and market participants are awaiting the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. It is expected that the rate will be reduced by 0.25% to 4.25%. Given the pair's movement in recent days, this decision seems to be priced in. What will be important for investors are the Canadian regulator's future plans, including the timing and scale of the next rate cut. Key events to watch in the coming days include:
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada’s trade balance for July
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US export and import data for July
- Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada's interest rate decision
AUD/USD
The failure of AUD/USD buyers to break through the 0.6800 resistance level has led to the formation of a "tower" pattern on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis of the AUD/USD pair suggests the potential for further decline if the 0.6700 level turns into resistance.
Early tomorrow morning, a series of important data releases from Australia is expected:
- At 4:30 (GMT+3): Australia’s trade balance for July
- At 5:00 (GMT+3): Speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock
Read analytical AUD/USD price forecasts for 2024 and beyond.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Stay ahead of the market!
Subscribe now to our mailing list and receive the latest market news and insights delivered directly to your inbox.
Latest articles
Euro and Pound Retreat from Highs After Strong US Data
The euro and pound have pulled back from their recent highs as the US dollar regained ground following a batch of stronger-than-expected economic data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year, compared with expectations of
Alibaba Analysis: Uptrend Break Attempt Amid Rising AI Investment
Alibaba reported its first-quarter results on 20 August, revealing a mixed picture for investors. Revenue increased by 9%, driven by accelerating growth in its cloud computing and AI businesses, but net profit fell by nearly three-quarters as capital expenditure on
EUR/AUD: A Hawkish Euro Meets a Stubborn Downtrend
The euro is riding genuine hawkish momentum right now. It's holding above $1.165 against the dollar, its strongest level since mid-May, with markets fully pricing in an ECB hike in September following June's initial tightening move. That conviction is