Currency markets are showing restrained movement, with USD/CAD and AUD/USD pairs remaining in a consolidation phase amid rising geopolitical tensions and anticipation of key economic data releases from the US and Canada. Investors are opting for a wait-and-see approach ahead of inflation data and consumer activity reports that could significantly impact interest rate trajectories.

An additional source of uncertainty came from geopolitical developments: US President Donald Trump unexpectedly stated that China may continue purchasing oil from Iran despite existing US sanctions. This statement, made after the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, caused confusion in the market and contributed to increased volatility in oil prices. The renewed focus on the Middle East is strengthening interest in commodity-linked currencies but also increasing the volatility of currency pairs sensitive to raw material prices.

Today, market participants await the release of US data on initial jobless claims, personal spending, trade inventories, and the Consumer Expenditure Price Index. From Canada, data on wholesale sales and average weekly earnings are expected. Forecasts suggest the numbers will fall within expected ranges, but any deviations could trigger moves in the USD/CAD and AUD/USD pairs.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is trading slightly above 0.6500, showing limited demand amid cautious sentiment toward risk-sensitive currencies. Technical analysis suggests a potential continued upward move toward the 0.6550–0.6620 range, as a piercing line candlestick pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. If buyers fail to break through resistance at 0.6550, the price might retreat to 0.6480.

Events that may impact AUD/USD pricing:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index

USD/CAD

The pair is trading near 1.3700 as the market awaits key news. Following the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern on 17 June, the price tested the 1.3780–1.3800 range. A slowdown in bullish momentum after rebounding from these levels allowed sellers to form a shooting star pattern. Technical analysis of USD/CAD suggests a possible retest of the 1.3600–1.3640 support zone.

Events that may impact USD/CAD pricing:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada Wholesale Sales
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada Average Weekly Earnings
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada GDP

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