Market Analysis: Citi Analysts Expect Brent to Reach $73 in 2024

Since the beginning of November, the price of Brent oil has decreased by more than 5%. This is due, among other things, to easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. According to the latest news:
→ Reuters: Iran does not plan to fight with Israel on the side of Hamas;
→ the UN Security Council adopted a resolution regarding the conflict.

Data on the growth of oil reserves in the United States above expectations also contributed to the price decline. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4% to 439.4 million barrels from 421.9 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. This is the highest inventory level since August.

Technically, the price of Brent oil is in a downtrend (shown by red lines). Moreover:
→ on November 14, the Brent price tested the median line, which acted as resistance;
→ during this test, a bearish engulfing pattern was formed, which confirms the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ USD 81.81 may now serve as immediate resistance while another important level of USD 84.50 appears out of reach – at least in November.

If sellers strengthen their control, it is possible that the price of Brent oil may reach the lower line of the channel and thereby get closer to the forecasts of Citi analysts. In their opinion:
→ the forecast Brent price is USD 73 by the second quarter of 2024;
→ the forecast Brent price at the end of 2024 is at USD 68 per barrel.

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