Market Analysis: Is the Price of Natural Gas Forming a New Trend?


The US Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that natural gas inventories in US storage rose by 18 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 18. That was below the 29 billion cubic feet increase forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

It is possible that market participants thought that insufficient filling of storage facilities will lead to a rise in gas prices in the coming winter. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the price of gas will peak at USD 3.44/MMBtu in December 2023 (approximately +36% from current levels).

The natural gas price chart shows that:
→ in July-August, a series of rising supports was formed;
→ the peak of August is higher than the peak of June, which in turn is higher than the peak of May.

A sequence of higher extremes could indicate that the market is in an uptrend that could bring the price closer to the IEA's price targets. The nearest resistance on this way is the level of 2.78, which in July-August repeatedly influenced the price dynamics.

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