Yesterday, the monthly oil market review was published:
→ OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, representing a 2.2% increase compared to 2023.
→ In 2025, OPEC predicts a demand increase of 1.85 million barrels per day, reaching 106.21 million barrels per day. It is anticipated that the growth in oil consumption in 2025 will be driven by China, the Middle East, and India.
This aligns with Occidental Petroleum's perspective, where they anticipate a global oil shortage starting in 2025, as the pace of global oil demand growth is roughly four times higher than the volumes of new reserves.
However, according to Citi analysts, the price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $60 per barrel due to oversupply.
As of today, the price of Brent crude oil is fluctuating in the consolidation zone around $77 per barrel. Market participants are closely monitoring the potential for an increase in the Brent oil price due to geopolitical tensions. For instance, Maersk has reported that escalation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will lead to disruptions in global logistics.
The Brent crude oil price chart indicates that
→ the new consolidation zone is lower than the previous one when the Brent price hovered around $81.
→ the price is near the crucial level of $73, which provided market support in 2023. At that time, OPEC+ countries announced a production cut to prevent further price decline. It is possible that they will take similar measures in 2024.
→ the rapid recovery of the price from December lows indicates the strength of demand for Brent oil below $74.
Given the provided information, if the Brent price falls below $74, it may lead to its subsequent increase.
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