A torrent of key economic data releases is coming out this week, which will significantly impact the markets. First up is UK unemployment and average earnings on Tuesday (10:00). Unemployment is expected to tick up to 4.3%, while earnings remain steady at 8.2%, presenting a quandary for the Bank of England as it battles to reduce inflation while not inducing a recession.
Wednesday starts (10:00) with another slew of UK data (GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Balance of Trade), which will certainly add some volatility to the pound, but the big one is US inflation at 16:30. With headline inflation expected to tick up, and core inflation to move down, the dollar will be in focus as the Fed continues to churn out the line' data dependent' for further rate hikes, and this is the key data.
The ECB will decide to stick or twist its interest rate on Thursday (16:15), with analysts generally expecting it to be held at 4.25%, but don't be surprised if they do one final move up to 4.5%. With inflation still high but euro area data starting to weaken, it's a tough call for the ECB, and with traders positioned for both outcomes, expect volatility.
Oil has been on a bull run since the summer, with WTI rallying from $66 to $86 a barrel as the Saudis continue to restrict supply. This has resulted in a drawdown in US inventories, so keep an eye on the latest oil and distillate data released at 18:30 on Thursday.
China is certainly struggling at the moment; how badly, no one really knows, but the yuan has been depreciating all year. It releases its unemployment, retail sales, and industrial production data on Friday at 06:00, all of which are expected to tick up.
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