As shown by the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), yesterday's trading saw the index hit a new intraday high of 5,678.9, surpassing the previous record of 5,677.5 set on 16 July. However, the bulls were unable to maintain this historic peak, which is a negative sign, suggesting the possibility of a bear trap scenario.

Nevertheless, this first new record in two months is significant as it shows the market's recovery from the panic-driven drop on 5 August, which was linked to fears of a potential recession.

Yesterday’s rise was boosted by the US Commerce Department's August retail sales report, which exceeded expectations. As Forbes noted, this supports the view that the US is not on the brink of a recession.

The market now heads into the final stretch before the highly anticipated Federal Reserve decision, expected today at 21:00 GMT+3, which will likely see the first interest rate cut in 4.5 years.

According to Forex Factory, analysts predict a rate cut to 5.25% from the current 5.50%. However, surprises are possible, with a 0.5% cut also on the table. Only a small minority seems to expect the rate to remain unchanged.

Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that the market is in an uptrend, marked by a blue channel. The index is trading near the median of this channel, suggesting a balance of supply and demand. Such conditions increase the likelihood of a flat market, but this seems unlikely with the Fed potentially starting a rate-cutting cycle.

Prepare for volatility today: the decision will be announced at 21:00 GMT+3, followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 21:30 GMT+3. If a bearish move occurs, support for the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) may come at the 5,400 level.

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