According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices should increase in the third quarter due to summer fuel demand leading to a “significant” deficit—approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. They forecast that the price of Brent could rise to $86 per barrel with a “ceiling” around $90.

This implies an approximate +7% increase from current levels and a continued rise from the low set on 4 June. How realistic is this?

Technical analysis of the XBR/USD chart indicates that:
→ In the long term, Brent crude oil prices are forming oscillations with diminishing amplitude—pattern A-B-C-D-E. This is a large-scale narrowing triangle, reflecting the balance of supply and demand around the median level, which is approximately around $83.50. This balance has been apparent since 2023.
→ A sharp bullish reversal and rise from the lower line indicates strong demand for Brent crude below $78.
→ Yesterday, bulls broke through the former support at $80.40 after an intraday correction, confirming their dominance.

If the bullish momentum doesn’t completely fade around the median line of the narrowing triangle, technically, the price of Brent crude oil could reach its upper boundary, which coincides with the ceiling forecasted by Goldman Sachs analysts.

Additionally, inflation news could have a significant impact on the XBR/USD exchange rate—the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is scheduled for tomorrow at 15:30 GMT+3.

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